Donald Trump and Ukraine

Will the USA’s Policy Towards Ukraine Change?

Ivan Sichen

In view of the risks of Russia’s new large-scale offensive in Ukraine, the military assistance to our country by the United States and the European Union has become extremely important. In the current situation, the help of Western allies remains one of the most significant factors that will help stop the Russian offensive. At the same time, the successful solution of such an issue has a broader political meaning. Thus, Ukraine’s Western partners demonstrate their intention to continue supporting our country in the confrontation with Russia. This applies not only to Europe, which is under a direct military threat from Russia and perceives Ukraine as a bastion fortress on the path of Russian aggression, but also to the United States of America, located across the ocean.

A possible change of power after the US presidential election in 2024 will not affect the USA’s policy of supporting Ukraine. This was evidenced by Donald Trump’s actual switch to the side of Ukraine. Perhaps the change in his views was forced in nature and not really sincere. He, most likely, pursues his own goals. Nevertheless, Moscow’s hopes that the USA will abandon Ukraine after the return of Donald Trump to power will not be realized. But then, it cannot be otherwise. Washington’s steadfast commitment to supporting Ukraine under any circumstances is objective in nature and determined by a number of internal and external factors. Let’s consider them in more detail.

At the end of April 2024, in an interview with Time Magazine, Donald Trump said that if he is elected US President, he will try to help Ukraine. At this, Donald Trump expressed the need to increase the share of European countries in such assistance. Even with such an amendment, Trump’s statement shows a positive change in his attitude to Ukraine. As you know, he once promised to stop the war within 24 hours by ceasing aid to our country. And he contemptuously called it a “quasi-state” and “part of Russia”, and also accused the Ukrainian authorities of total corruption and embezzlement of Western money.

What caused such transformations in Trump’s position? It is unlikely that he suddenly developed a great love for Ukraine. Most likely, Donald Trump is pursuing his own goals related to the election process in the USA, as well as related to his business and to peculiarities of foreign policy, which he followed during his previous presidential term and will probably try to continue in case of his victory.

Today Donald Trump acts as the leader of the US Republican Party. Thanks to him, the Republican Party for a long time had been blocking the Congress’ decision to allocate $60 billion of military aid to Ukraine. The position of Donald Trump and the Republican Party was explained by the need to first resolve the problems of the United States, in particular, those related to illegal migration. And when US President Joe Biden and the US Democratic Party agreed to the demands of the Republicans, they began to create new procedural obstacles in the process of adopting the Congress’ decision.

With this policy, Donald Trump, with the support of his fellow party members, tried to improve his rating, presenting himself as a defender of the interests of US citizens. For this, the topic of illegal migration was chosen — one of the most sensitive for Americans. In turn, some representatives of the Republican Party in the US Congress, who could be bribed by Russia, openly spoke against Ukraine.

This approach, in fact, had led to a split in Trump’s environment and in the US Republican Party itself. Some of Trump’s advisers and Republican congressmen and senators chose a different position, supporting Ukraine. They believe that the delay in providing aid to Ukraine plays into the hands of Russia, which remains the main adversary of the United States and the main source of threats to the security of the Western world. What’s more, Trump’s policy began to disagree with the moods in the American society, the vast majority of which sympathizes with Ukraine, at the same time condemning Russia. As a result, Trump’s rating began to fall, which forced Donald Trump and the Republican Party to side with Ukraine, or at least to demonstrate such support.

The interests of the US military-industrial complex also became an important factor influencing Trump’s attitude to Ukraine. Most of the funds allocated to Ukraine will remain in the United States and will be spent on the purchase of weapons from American manufacturers. The re-equipment of the US Armed Forces (when outdated weapons are transferred to Ukraine and replaced with new ones) will contribute to the development of both the American military industry and the US Armed Forces for the same money. In fact, they are invested in the US economy, which increases the number of jobs and allows American arms manufacturers to earn additional profits. Donald Trump or his environment may also have business ties with the US military industry, so the military assistance to Ukraine fully coincides with their interests.

In the case of Trump’s election as the US President, the issue of supporting Ukraine would allow him to more effectively implement the foreign policy he followed during the previous presidency. In particular, at that time, he demanded that NATO members increase their financial contributions to European defense, at least to the level of their commitments — 2 percent of GDP. These demands are fully justified in nature, but they have led to the complication of relations between the USA and Europe and the weakening of transatlantic unity. Today, most NATO members have finally recognized the need to increase their defense spending.

During his presidency, Donald Trump also made active efforts to contain China as a geopolitical competitor of the United States and to protect national manufacturers from Chinese expansion in the American market. His administration had repeatedly raised tariffs on Chinese goods and severely restricted their imports. Besides, there was a practice of imposing sanctions against Chinese companies accused of violating business rules and industrial espionage.

No matter what is said about Donald Trump, he is a clever person and he will consider his previous miscalculations

However, such Trump’s efforts were treated quite ambiguously in the United States. The majority of national manufacturers supported his efforts to protect the American market. Those entrepreneurs who had joint business with Chinese partners opposed the restrictive measures. Moreover, in response to the actions of the Trump administration, Beijing began to create obstacles in the activities of American businesses in China. All this weakened the strong ties between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, which began to negatively affect the American economy. The complication of relations between the two states in the military and political spheres had led to the new challenges and threats to the security of the United States, which forced it to increase the military expenditure. All this caused dissatisfaction in the domestic political circles of the US, primarily among representatives of the Democratic Party, who supported the policy of the previous US President Barack Obama to build a strategic partnership with China.

Donald Trump could not persuade his opponents of the necessity of his policy towards China, which was one of the reasons for the drop in his approval rating, as a result of which he lost the 2020 presidential election. No matter what is said about Donald Trump, he is a clever person and, most likely, he will consider his previous miscalculations. Supporting Ukraine opens up a whole range of opportunities for him to put pressure on China. And no one will be able to blame him anymore, since the current Biden administration has already succeeded in imposing sanctions on China. That is, as President of the United States, Donald Trump would only continue the policy of his predecessor.

A similar situation could be observed earlier. On the eve of the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump also “flirted” with Russia and promised to improve bilateral relations. At that time, in Moscow, this was perceived as Trump’s willingness to make concessions to Russia, including on the Ukrainian issue. But, as it is always the case with politics, promises and real policy are two big differences. As President of the USA, Donald Trump continued the policy of containing Russia and maintained all the sanctions imposed against it. At the same time, the United States continued to provide aid to Ukraine, which even began to reach a qualitatively higher level. In particular, it was then that the USA began supplying our country with weapons. In addition, Washington has significantly increased spending on guaranteeing transatlantic security against threats from Russia, including on strengthening the American military presence in Europe. And Trump’s statements about the intention to withdraw American troops from Germany related only to plans for their redeployment to Poland, which was on the front flank of the Russian threat, immediately behind Ukraine.

In the case of Trump’s re-election, US foreign policy would not undergo significant changes

That is, in the case of Trump’s re-election, US foreign policy would not undergo significant changes, except for a possible increase in pressure on China. The USA would continue to help Ukraine, although at the same time it would strengthen control over such an assistance. This was recently mentioned in an interview with Victoria Spartz, a member of the US House of Representatives from the Republican Party. A Ukrainian by birth and a patriot of Ukraine, she wants American aid to our country to be used as effectively as possible. Back in April 2022, Spartz was the first American congressperson to visit Ukraine after the start of the full-scale war. Later, she visited our country more than once. She correctly raised the topic of corruption in Ukraine, Ukraine’s unpreparedness for a major war in 2022, and the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023.

Unfortunately, the USA has politicians who support Russia, and some senators and congressmen even openly defend Russia’s interests. Some of them were bribed by Moscow. There are those who pursue their own political goals. Therefore, in any case, they will try to discredit Ukraine and its government, as well as prevent the US support to our state. We should not perceive this as a catastrophe, but we just must be ready.